Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, June 26, 2023

SPC Jun 26, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Little change in the large-scale pattern is expected across the CONUS today. A relatively deep upper trough will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone approaches the upper Great Lakes region. An upper ridge will persist over the southern High Plains, while an upper trough remains over much of the West. A cold front will move across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast. ...Mid Atlantic into parts of the Northeast... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible later today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, within a favorably unstable environment (with preconvective MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg) in advance of the cold front. The strongest deep-layer flow associated with the upper trough will be displaced well to the south and west, but 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support some modest effective shear across the region, especially where low-level flow remains somewhat backed. A mix of storm clusters and perhaps a few marginal supercells are expected through the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds are expected to be the most likely hazard, though any sustained discrete cells may also pose a threat of hail and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Carolinas... Somewhat stronger instability and deep-layer shear are expected across parts of the Carolinas later today (compared to areas farther north), though storm coverage may tend to decrease with southward extent. MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some initial supercell potential, with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates supporting a hail threat, including the potential for isolated very large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible with any sustained supercell, though there will be a tendency for upscale growth into one or more clusters, with an increasing threat for damaging gusts as storms move eastward toward the coast. ...Northern WY/Southeast MT into western SD/northwest NE... A narrow zone of modest low-level moisture return and moderate destabilization is expected this afternoon across parts of the central/northern High Plains into southern MT, along the western periphery of a surface ridge. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 30-40 kt range, as low-level southeasterly flow veers to modest southwesterlies aloft. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a few supercells and/or modestly organized clusters possible. Large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss region... Strong to potentially severe storms may be ongoing at the start of the period this morning across the ArkLaMiss region, within an environment characterized by large elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Some threat for hail and/or locally damaging gusts could linger through the morning, before storms weaken or move offshore of the Gulf Coast. Another round of somewhat elevated convection is possible late tonight near/north of the remnant surface boundary from southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss, within a weak low-level warm-advection regime. Strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear within a northwesterly flow regime may support a renewed risk of hail and locally damaging gusts into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated storm development is possible across the southern High Plains, within a hot and well-mixed environment. Any deep convection would pose a threat for isolated downbursts. Any sustained cells could also eventually pose a hail threat, though storm longevity appears limited at this time within this weakly forced regime. ..Dean/Lyons.. 06/26/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)