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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, June 2, 2023

SPC Jun 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A relatively benign upper pattern will be situated across the CONUS today, characterized by weak upper ridging east of the MS River, with diffuse upper troughing occurring across the western and central CONUS. A broad fetch of adequate low-level moisture between the Rockies and the MS River will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, especially along the High Plains, where surface lee troughing will enhance lift for robust convection. A 500 mb jet streak, associated with a mid-level impulse embedded in the larger-scale upper trough, will overspread the southern High Plains by afternoon, promoting a risk for severe thunderstorms. All severe hazards will be possible, especially across western TX. ...Southern High Plains... As the aforementioned 500 mb jet max overspreads the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, a dryline will sharpen from the CO/KS border to the Trans Pecos region in southwest TX. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F surface dewpoints, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the higher CAPE values likely across western TX. Meanwhile, veering winds with height in the 850-700 mb layer, overspread by the 500 mb jet streak, will contribute to weakly curved but elongated hodographs and corresponding 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to be the initial storm mode, with 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible. However, the supercells are expected to rapidly congeal into one or more MCSs just a few hours after convective initiation, from eastern CO into western TX. The steeper lapse rates and associated higher amounts of buoyancy across western TX, coinciding with the axis of the 500 mb jet, may promote the development of a longer-lived, mature MCS with embedded bowing features. Several severe gusts are possible, a few of which may reach 65 kts. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/02/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC