LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon
and evening across parts of the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A relatively benign upper pattern will be situated across the CONUS
today, characterized by weak upper ridging east of the MS River,
with diffuse upper troughing occurring across the western and
central CONUS. A broad fetch of adequate low-level moisture between
the Rockies and the MS River will promote isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, especially along the High Plains, where
surface lee troughing will enhance lift for robust convection. A 500
mb jet streak, associated with a mid-level impulse embedded in the
larger-scale upper trough, will overspread the southern High Plains
by afternoon, promoting a risk for severe thunderstorms. All severe
hazards will be possible, especially across western TX.
...Southern High Plains...
As the aforementioned 500 mb jet max overspreads the southern High
Plains by afternoon peak heating, a dryline will sharpen from the
CO/KS border to the Trans Pecos region in southwest TX. Ahead of the
dryline, mid 60s F surface dewpoints, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE,
with the higher CAPE values likely across western TX. Meanwhile,
veering winds with height in the 850-700 mb layer, overspread by the
500 mb jet streak, will contribute to weakly curved but elongated
hodographs and corresponding 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear.
Supercells are expected to be the initial storm mode, with 2+ inch
diameter hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible. However,
the supercells are expected to rapidly congeal into one or more MCSs
just a few hours after convective initiation, from eastern CO into
western TX. The steeper lapse rates and associated higher amounts of
buoyancy across western TX, coinciding with the axis of the 500 mb
jet, may promote the development of a longer-lived, mature MCS with
embedded bowing features. Several severe gusts are possible, a few
of which may reach 65 kts.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/02/2023
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