LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The overall upper-level pattern during the Day 4-8 period will see a
mean trough persisting across the eastern third of the CONUS, though
severe potential is expected to be lower than recent days.
Meanwhile, the amplified upper ridge over the Plains/Upper Midwest
will persist through around Day 5/6-Thu/Fri. Late in the week, the
upper ridge is expected to flatten across the northern Plains as an
upper low tracks from the northern Rockies vicinity eastward along
the Canadian border. Deep-layer flow will generally be modest atop a
seasonally moist and unstable airmass from the southern to the
northern High Plains through much of the period. Weak shortwave
impulses ejecting from the western upper trough may support isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms across the High Plains through Day
6/Fri. However, confidence in location and coverage of storms is too
low to include probabilities at this time. As the northern extent of
the upper ridge dampens late in the period, some risk for strong
thunderstorms may shift east toward parts of the Mid/Lower MO/Mid-MS
Valleys, but confidence in this scenario is low.
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