LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of thunderstorm activity are possible across the Gulf Coast
states, parts of the Colorado Rockies, and the interior Northwest
Friday through Friday night, but the risk for severe storms appears
negligible.
...Synopsis...
While mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific
gradually begins to amplify Friday through Friday night, models
suggest that an amplified regime will also continue to evolve
downstream, across Canada into the northern Atlantic. It appears
that this will include a significant remnant perturbation emerging
from confluent flow across the Great Lakes through Canadian
Maritimes, and supporting strengthening cyclogenesis across the
northwestern Atlantic, in the wake of an occluding preceding cyclone
pivoting to its northeast and north. A cold front trailing the new
cyclone is forecast to surge farther offshore of the northern and
middle Atlantic Seaboard, while the center of an expansive cold
surface high shifts across the upper into lower Great Lakes
vicinity.
A much less amplified regime will prevail in the southern mid- and
subtropical latitudes, with broad mid-level troughing across the
eastern Pacific transitioning to broad ridging across the Gulf of
Mexico and Southeast into western Atlantic. One or two short wave
perturbations are forecast to progress through this regime across
the northern Mexican Plateau through Rio Grande Valley and
northwestern through north central Gulf coast vicinity.
....Gulf Coast/Southeast...
It appears that cool surface ridging to the southwest of the Great
Lakes high will be maintained across the Ohio Valley through much of
the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, the southern Great Plains and
northwestern Gulf coast, while ridging also noses
south-southwestward to the lee of the southern Appalachians through
this period. At the same time, a weak return flow off the western
Gulf of Mexico is forecast to maintain a relatively moist low-level
environment across much of the Gulf Coast vicinity.
Above the cool boundary-layer air, this moisture appears likely to
contribute to conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles
supportive of widespread convection and embedded thunderstorms.
Aided by forcing associated with the short wave perturbations, this
may be ongoing early Friday across the Texas coastal plain into
lower Mississippi Valley, before gradually spreading
east-northeastward through Friday night.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the wedge
cold front across parts of central Georgia Friday afternoon, but
modest boundary-layer instability, weak low-level flow/shear and a
tendency for convection to perhaps become undercut by the front seem
likely to minimize the severe weather potential.
A corridor of modest boundary-layer instability across southeastern
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi may also support a couple of
strong storms Friday afternoon. However, weak low-level forcing for
ascent and shear seem likely to result in only brief/marginal severe
weather potential, at best, and severe probabilities are being
maintained at less than 5 percent.
...Western U.S...
Pockets of cold air aloft associated with weak or weakening
mid-level troughing may support weak destabilization and scattered
thunderstorm activity across parts of the interior Northwest and
Colorado Rockies Friday afternoon and evening.
..Kerr.. 04/06/2023
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