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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, April 6, 2023

SPC Apr 6, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as across south-central Texas and the Texas Coastal Plains. ...Southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... At mid-levels, southwest flow will be in place across the eastern U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. In response to surface heating, scattered convection is expected to initiate along and ahead of the front during the early afternoon. As thunderstorms increase in coverage, several multicell line segments may develop and move eastward across parts of North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. Some of the deterministic models also suggest that a subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Lift ahead of this feature, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, should aid convective development. RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 8.0 C/km. This, combined with 35 knots of 0-6 km shear, should be enough for isolated wind damage. Hail may also accompany the stronger updrafts. ....Texas... Flow will be southwesterly at mid-levels today over the southern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be in place across much of Texas. Although temperatures will be relatively cool near the surface, forecast soundings suggest that mid-level lapse rates will be steep across south-central Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain. This will contribute to instability, mostly above 700 mb. RAP forecast soundings have MUCAPE as great as 1500 J/kg around Corpus Christi during the afternoon. This could be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorm development should continue into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Ahead of this feature, a few marginally severe storms could continue to form during the evening. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 04/06/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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