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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 23, 2023

SPC Apr 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of severe wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado or two are possible over south Texas today, mainly this morning into early/mid afternoon. Isolated wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are possible. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will remain in place over much of the central/eastern CONUS today. An expansive surface ridge will cover much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, in the wake of a cold front. Rich low-level moisture will mainly be confined to south Florida, and also across south TX prior to the cold frontal passage. An organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to develop during the first part of the day across south TX. ...South Texas... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection across south TX today, but there is some potential for organized MCS development later this morning, which could pose a threat of potentially significant wind gusts (along with some hail and tornado threat) before storms move offshore. Most guidance (both CAMs and larger-scale guidance) suggest storm coverage will increase between 09-12Z this morning across southern parts of the Edwards Plateau, aided by a modest southeasterly low-level jet impinging on the southward-moving cold front. Eventual upscale growth into one or more southeastward-moving clusters is expected later this morning. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support embedded supercell structures capable of hail. Low-level shear will also be sufficient to support a tornado or two with any sustained surface-based convection. Some guidance depicts the development of a well-organized bowing MCS, which would move southeastward toward portions of deep south TX and the lower TX coast. Should this occur, a more concentrated area of severe/damaging gusts may develop, including the potential for isolated significant gusts. The Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, due to uncertainty related to the potentially complex evolution of convection later this morning, and the timing and most favored corridor for MCS development. However, a 10% significant wind area has been added to account for the potential of localized significant gusts. If confidence increases in an organized bowing MCS moving across south TX, greater unconditional wind probabilities may be needed later today. ..Dean/Bentley.. 04/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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