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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, March 30, 2023

SPC Mar 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central Plains Thursday evening and overnight. ...Central and Southern Plains... Late-evening model guidance suggests upper low off the central CA Coast will advance inland early in the period as the primary speed max translates through the base of the trough across the lower CO River Valley, increasing to near 100kt at 500mb over NM by the end of the period. In response, LLJ will increase markedly across the southern/central Plains which will prove responsible in transporting higher-PW air mass from south TX into OK by mid day, ultimately with significant moistening expected into a notable warm-advection corridor over NE into southern MN during the overnight period. Early this morning, 60s surface dew points are limited to the lower-middle TX Coastal region; however, 60F dew points should reach the I-40 corridor around 31/00z, and I-70 over KS after midnight. Current thinking is the warm sector will remain strongly capped much of the period. However, strong boundary-layer heating within a post-dryline environment will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s across western KS and to near 80F over west TX by 21z. This should weaken the cap such that isolated convection may develop along the boundary. If so, strong shear will support sustained, rotating storms. It's not entirely clear how many storms will evolve along the dryline but supercells are possible if deep convection materializes. Otherwise, elevated convection appears more likely within the warm advection zone as it shifts north. Continued moistening during the overnight hours across the southern Plains, along with a weakening cap along the I-35 corridor may lead to near-surface-based thunderstorms toward the end of the period. These late-night storms would pose mostly a hail/wind threat, but a tornado can not be ruled out. Farther north, sharpening/moistening warm advection zone will serve as the focus for a corridor of elevated convection from northern NE into southwest MN. Forecast soundings suggest parcels should be lifted near/above 850mb, but significant MUCAPE is evident (perhaps in excess of 1000 J/kg). Hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms after 31/00z. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/30/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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