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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, March 28, 2023

SPC Mar 28, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, and in a separate area over south Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will quickly move from the lower MO Valley eastward to VA/NC by late evening. Located to the south across the Gulf Coast states, a belt of strong 500-mb westerly flow will persist across the southern U.S. In the low levels, a largely stalled front will be draped across the central Gulf Coast eastward through the GA/FL border region during the morning. The western extension of this boundary will quickly push southward as a cold front during the morning across much of south TX, while the eastern portion moves southeast during the day. ...Central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia and north Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast near the surface boundary. A moisture-rich airmass and strong deep-layer shear will aid in some organization to the more vigorous storms. A risk for localized damaging gusts and/or marginal hail may accompany the stronger storms. Additional storm development is indicated by model guidance during the day coincident with diurnal heating to the east of the activity. Long hodographs and moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may yield a slightly higher coverage for severe (i.e., eastern FL Panhandle into north FL). However, uncertainty in the evolution of the morning storms evolving into one or two clusters may negate some destabilization via cloud cover. The scattered thunderstorms will likely push east-southeast across this region during the day with the severe risk subsiding by early evening. ...South Texas... Moderate elevated instability will exist across South Texas during much of the period Tuesday. Forcing will be nebulous, but a southward-surging front in the morning, and an approaching subtropical mid-level jet streak in the evening may both be sufficient for some elevated thunderstorms. A stronger storm or two may pose an isolated risk for large hail. ..Smith/Weinman.. 03/28/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)