LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...AND
SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast, and in a separate area over south
Texas.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will quickly move from the lower MO
Valley eastward to VA/NC by late evening. Located to the south
across the Gulf Coast states, a belt of strong 500-mb westerly flow
will persist across the southern U.S. In the low levels, a largely
stalled front will be draped across the central Gulf Coast eastward
through the GA/FL border region during the morning. The western
extension of this boundary will quickly push southward as a cold
front during the morning across much of south TX, while the eastern
portion moves southeast during the day.
...Central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia and north Florida...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across
the central Gulf Coast near the surface boundary. A moisture-rich
airmass and strong deep-layer shear will aid in some organization to
the more vigorous storms. A risk for localized damaging gusts
and/or marginal hail may accompany the stronger storms. Additional
storm development is indicated by model guidance during the day
coincident with diurnal heating to the east of the activity. Long
hodographs and moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may yield a
slightly higher coverage for severe (i.e., eastern FL Panhandle into
north FL). However, uncertainty in the evolution of the morning
storms evolving into one or two clusters may negate some
destabilization via cloud cover. The scattered thunderstorms will
likely push east-southeast across this region during the day with
the severe risk subsiding by early evening.
...South Texas...
Moderate elevated instability will exist across South Texas during
much of the period Tuesday. Forcing will be nebulous, but a
southward-surging front in the morning, and an approaching
subtropical mid-level jet streak in the evening may both be
sufficient for some elevated thunderstorms. A stronger storm or two
may pose an isolated risk for large hail.
..Smith/Weinman.. 03/28/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SlbKHb
