LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
across Georgia into southern South Carolina. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the primary risks.
...Synopsis...
A largely zonal upper-air pattern will extend from northern Mexico
east to the Southeast states, which will be located latitudinally
south of a couple of disturbances rotating through cyclonic flow
over the central High Plains and Great Lakes. In the low levels, a
weak surface low will develop east from the central Appalachians
into the western Atlantic, while an attendant cold front pushes
southward into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast/TX by Monday
night.
...Southeast...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
Carolinas in association with a 50-kt southwesterly LLJ centered
over NC at daybreak. An isolated risk for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms may continue into the mid morning in the coastal
Carolinas where deep-layer shear and an adequately moist/unstable
airmass are forecast. Trailing outflow will likely be draped across
SC in wake of this early day activity and may serve as a focus for
additional storm development during the midday/afternoon. It is
unclear in the placement of the boundary and whether appreciable
destabilization will foster stronger storm development. Farther
south into GA/AL/FL vicinity, a more pristine and unstable airmass
will likely destabilize during the day as strong heating results in
moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow will
weaken during the day but strong mid to high-level flow will
persist. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast with
organized storms evolving from the more vigorous updrafts. This
activity will likely diminish by early evening.
...Southeast TX into LA...
The western extension of the composite boundary will slowly sag
southward into the northwest Gulf Coast region during the day. A
relatively moist boundary layer near/south of the boundary and
diurnal heating will result in 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst 40-50 kt
effective shear. Models continue to show at least isolated to
widely scattered storms developing near or north of the boundary,
mainly Monday night. Isolated large hail appears to be the primary
risk.
..Smith/Weinman.. 03/27/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SlXNQf
