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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, March 26, 2023

SPC Mar 26, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely occur from central Louisiana eastward across the central Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas. Several tornadoes are possible, including the possibility for a couple of strong tornadoes. A risk for large to very large hail will probably accompany the more intense storms. ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the lower MS Valley and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states. A larger-scale trough initially over the Interior West will deamplify as a 90-kt 500 mb speed max moves from AZ/NM to the lower OH Valley. A lower-latitude mid-level perturbation is forecast to move from south-central/east-central TX to MS/AL by early evening. In the low levels, a frontal zone initially draped from southern LA through central AL will probably advance northward into northern LA and central MS during the day as a weak area of low pressure develops east along the frontal zone coincident with the mid-level speed max. ...Central Gulf Coast east to the Carolinas... A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing this morning over parts of AL/GA via low-level warm-air advection and an accompanying isolated risk for severe thunderstorms. Model guidance seems to indicate that this activity will persist and move east while some upscale growth occurs during the morning. Strong effective shear (50 kt) will support storm organization. Less certain is the evolution of this potential storm activity as it evolves through the diurnal heating cycle as it moves across GA into the Carolinas. Additional storms may develop with some of these becoming supercellular while a complex mixed convective mode (perhaps downscale growth into some cells) may occur. Regardless, all hazards seem possible given the ample buoyancy (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) forecast across parts of GA into the Carolinas during the day. Farther west, as the marine warm front advances slowly northward into the lower MS Valley and south-central AL during the day, the combination of heating and moistening of the boundary layer beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in a corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). A gradual veering and strengthening of flow with height will result in enlarging and long hodographs by late afternoon/early evening. A seemingly potent thermodynamic/kinematic setup is shown by some models from LA east into AL. The favorable timing of the mid-level disturbance and an intensification of the 850-mb flow will conditionally yield a potentially very favorable corridor for intense supercells. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger updrafts and several tornadoes are also possible, including a risk for a couple of strong tornadoes. A cluster of storms will likely evolve as a LLJ intensifies by the mid-late evening and into the overnight with a severe risk spreading east. ...IL/IN... Low-topped thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon across eastern IL as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability may still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, and convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk. ..Smith/Weinman.. 03/26/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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