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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, March 18, 2023

SPC Mar 18, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast Saturday. ...Florida... Strong northern-stream upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes during the day1 period as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates off the southern New England Coast, increasing to near 140kt by 19/12z. In the wake of this feature, strong surface anticyclone will build south across the Plains, ultimately dominating the CONUS east of the Rockies. Leading edge of this air mass will force a cold front into the central FL Peninsula later this afternoon, then to the Keys by the end of the period. Early this morning, most concentrated convection extends ahead of the front across southeast GA along with a nearly north-south band approaching the central FL Gulf Coast. Scattered convection will likely persist along/ahead of the boundary into the early part of the period, but aside from a few strong updrafts, this activity is not expected to be severe. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating ahead of the cold front by late morning with surface temperatures forecast to rise into the lower 80s by 18z. Convective temperatures will be breached shortly thereafter and isolated thunderstorms should develop along the boundary. While SBCAPE values could exceed 1000 J/kg, modest lapse rates and seasonally weak surface-6km bulk shear do not favor organized updrafts, especially given the expected weak low-level convergence. While a few robust updrafts could evolve, the prospect for severe wind, and/or hail appear too low to warrant severe probabilities. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/18/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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