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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, March 17, 2023

SPC Mar 17, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms will be possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...Synopsis... A deamplifying short-wave trough embedded in a fast southern stream of flow aloft across the southern U.S. will cross the southeastern quarter of the country today. This will occur as a large upper low over the north-central U.S. at the start of the period shifts into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a deep/occluding cyclone over the Upper Great Lakes -- will sweep quickly eastward across the eastern third of the U.S., reaching the Atlantic Coast, northern Florida, and the central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the progression of this front, including limited severe risk across portions of the Gulf Coast region -- mainly during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central and eastern Gulf Coast region... Showers and thunderstorms -- ongoing in the vicinity of the advancing front -- will likely be affecting areas from southeastern Louisiana to the southern Appalachians region at the start of the period. Though gusty winds may be ongoing locally, in conjunction with stronger updrafts within the advancing band of convection, potential for severe-caliber gusts will likely remain limited/sporadic into the afternoon. With time, modest heating/destabilization into the southeastern Alabama/southwestern Georgia, Florida Panhandle vicinity may permit a few somewhat more vigorous updrafts to evolve within the advancing convective band. This -- given the very strong kinematic environment -- will likely support a modest uptick in potential for gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado. This relative peak in severe potential may last into early evening, though weaker instability -- in part due to diurnal effects -- farther east suggests that risk will wane gradually as the front, and associated convective band, progress across southeastern Georgia and into northern parts of the Florida Peninsula. ..Goss.. 03/17/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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