LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to continue eastward across
the central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Friday into the upcoming
weekend. Some differences in guidance regarding the evolution of
this upper trough/low remain apparent. Regardless, appreciable
low-level moisture return ahead of a cold front should remain
confined to parts of the central Gulf Coast states (LA/MS/AL and the
FL Panhandle) on Friday. An isolated/marginal severe risk may
develop across this area if sufficient instability can develop to
support surface-based convection. But, this potential currently
appears too low to include a 15% severe area for Friday.
The chance for even isolated severe thunderstorms will likely remain
confined to parts of FL over the upcoming weekend ahead of a cold
front. With weak low-level convergence along the front and modest
instability forecast, 15% delineations do not appear warranted for
Day 5/Saturday or Day 6/Sunday. By early next week, there are some
indications in guidance that another southern-stream shortwave
trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. Any severe
potential associated with this system will probably remain confined
to parts of FL, but predictability remains low at this extended time
frame.
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