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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, March 14, 2023

SPC Mar 14, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to continue eastward across the central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Friday into the upcoming weekend. Some differences in guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough/low remain apparent. Regardless, appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a cold front should remain confined to parts of the central Gulf Coast states (LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle) on Friday. An isolated/marginal severe risk may develop across this area if sufficient instability can develop to support surface-based convection. But, this potential currently appears too low to include a 15% severe area for Friday. The chance for even isolated severe thunderstorms will likely remain confined to parts of FL over the upcoming weekend ahead of a cold front. With weak low-level convergence along the front and modest instability forecast, 15% delineations do not appear warranted for Day 5/Saturday or Day 6/Sunday. By early next week, there are some indications in guidance that another southern-stream shortwave trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. Any severe potential associated with this system will probably remain confined to parts of FL, but predictability remains low at this extended time frame. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)