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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, March 14, 2023

SPC Mar 14, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The southern portion of a large-scale upper trough over the western states will move eastward across southern CA, the Great Basin, and the Southwest on Wednesday. Even though low-level moisture will remain limited, weak MUCAPE should develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool and lapse rates aloft gradually steepen. Isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes may occur as ascent associated with the southern-stream shortwave trough overspreads these areas. This activity is expected to generally remain elevated. Low-level moisture return will occur across the southern Plains through Wednesday night as the shortwave trough approaches and a southerly low-level jet strengthens. This moisture will initially be fairly limited, with a substantial cap also forecast. The potential for elevated thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection regime should remain low until perhaps late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning (after 16/06Z), as the cap gradually erodes. Even if any thunderstorms form, MUCAPE should remain too weak to support a threat for severe hail through the end of the Day 2 period. ..Gleason.. 03/14/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)