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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, February 9, 2023

SPC Feb 9, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible across south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend region today. Isolated severe gusts may accompany showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Indiana, Ohio, and southern lower Michigan this morning and afternoon. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes and Northeast by tonight. A related surface cyclone will move from central Illinois toward Ontario and southern Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the Southeast, TN/OH Valleys, and Northeast. ...South AL...Southeast GA...FL Panhandle/Big Bend region... A band of convection may be ongoing across parts of south AL and FL Panhandle at the start of the period, with sufficient low/midlevel flow/shear for an isolated damaging-wind threat. A general weakening trend is expected through the morning, as the primary large-scale ascent moves away from the region and convergence along the cold front weakens near the Gulf Coast. Modest diurnal heating/destabilization may allow for some intensification or redevelopment of deep convection along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with time, but may remain sufficient for a few organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging gusts through the afternoon. Low-level shear may remain sufficient to support a brief tornado threat as well, if any supercell can be sustained within the weakly forced regime. Some redevelopment of primarily elevated convection is possible later tonight from southeast LA toward the AL/FL Gulf Coast region, but generally weak instability is expected to limit the severe threat with the overnight storms. ...East-central IL into IN/OH and southern lower MI... As the negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough and surface low/cold front move quickly northeastward, low-topped convective showers will be possible along/ahead of the front from eastern IL into IN early this morning, spreading into parts of OH and southern lower MI by mid/late morning into the afternoon. Low ELs and very weak buoyancy will preclude lightning production with most or all of this convection, but with very strong low-level flow (65+ kt at 1 km AGL), even modest convective gust enhancement may result in localized strong/damaging winds across the region. ..Dean/Weinman.. 02/09/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)