LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado
are possible across south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the
Florida Panhandle/Big Bend region today. Isolated severe gusts may
accompany showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of
Indiana, Ohio, and southern lower Michigan this morning and
afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
eject northeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast by tonight. A related surface cyclone will move
from central Illinois toward Ontario and southern Quebec, as an
attendant cold front moves through parts of the Southeast, TN/OH
Valleys, and Northeast.
...South AL...Southeast GA...FL Panhandle/Big Bend region...
A band of convection may be ongoing across parts of south AL and FL
Panhandle at the start of the period, with sufficient low/midlevel
flow/shear for an isolated damaging-wind threat. A general weakening
trend is expected through the morning, as the primary large-scale
ascent moves away from the region and convergence along the cold
front weakens near the Gulf Coast. Modest diurnal
heating/destabilization may allow for some intensification or
redevelopment of deep convection along/ahead of the cold front this
afternoon. Deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with time, but
may remain sufficient for a few organized cells/clusters capable of
locally damaging gusts through the afternoon. Low-level shear may
remain sufficient to support a brief tornado threat as well, if any
supercell can be sustained within the weakly forced regime.
Some redevelopment of primarily elevated convection is possible
later tonight from southeast LA toward the AL/FL Gulf Coast region,
but generally weak instability is expected to limit the severe
threat with the overnight storms.
...East-central IL into IN/OH and southern lower MI...
As the negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough and surface low/cold
front move quickly northeastward, low-topped convective showers will
be possible along/ahead of the front from eastern IL into IN early
this morning, spreading into parts of OH and southern lower MI by
mid/late morning into the afternoon. Low ELs and very weak buoyancy
will preclude lightning production with most or all of this
convection, but with very strong low-level flow (65+ kt at 1 km
AGL), even modest convective gust enhancement may result in
localized strong/damaging winds across the region.
..Dean/Weinman.. 02/09/2023
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