LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Feb 06 2023
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
and overnight across portions of southeast Texas.
...Texas...
Late Monday evening satellite imagery depicts a notable upper trough
shifting slowly east toward the southern Rockies. This feature is
forecast to eject into the southern High Plains by early Wednesday
morning. Given the slow movement of the trough, appreciable height
falls will lag the cold front, and large-scale forcing should remain
fairly weak across the warm sector.
Currently, scattered convection has developed along the cool side of
the boundary over Oklahoma. This elevated activity is driven in
large part by low-level warm advection which will be the predominant
forcing mechanism for convection through the period. Surface dew
points have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the warm
sector over east TX. While surface dew points may continue to rise a
few degrees, warm 700mb temperatures will cap the warm sector most
of the period. Weak lapse rates will also limit overall buoyancy
across this region. Latest thinking is warm advection will drive
episodic convective bouts within a post-frontal regime most of the
period. However, during the latter half of the period, uncapped
surface-based buoyancy will develop from the middle TX Coast into
portions of southeast TX. Forecast soundings suggest some supercell
threat, though low-level shear is not expected to be that strong.
Greatest risk with this activity is isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/07/2023
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