LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday across
the contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low near Baja California will evolve into an open trough
while moving east across northern Mexico and reaching southwest TX
and adjacent portions of Mexico. A powerful upstream speed max will
dig south-southeastward along the Pacific Coast. A cyclone will
deepen over the Great Basin during the period. A surface warm front
will advance north across the Mid South and the Ozark Plateau.
Southerly low-level flow will advect moisture north across the
southern Great Plains. A strengthening warm conveyor belt (50-65 kt
850mb flow) is forecast from TX into the lower MO Valley/OH Valley
mainly after dark, and will favor the development of scattered
showers/thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms will
probably focus across parts of west into northwest TX and southern
OK, and in a separate area from the lower MO Valley east into the OH
Valley. MUCAPE ranging from 250-750 J/kg in the presence of strong
vertical shear may result in a stronger elevated storm or two near
the Red River.
..Smith.. 02/20/2023
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