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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, February 17, 2023

SPC Feb 17, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Discussion... Positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to shift off the Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. Prior to this, warm advection will prove instrumental in elevated convective threat across upstate NY into northern VT/NH, north of a warm front. Forecast soundings across this region exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates atop a cold, stable boundary layer. 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE should support a few deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning, mostly before 18z. Westerly flow will deepen across the Southeast/northern FL ahead of a trailing cold front that will move off the Southeast Atlantic Coast by early evening. While profiles will moisten ahead of the front, forecast soundings do not exhibit much buoyancy within a poor lapse rate environment. Even so, a few flashes of lightning may accompany the most robust updrafts, though storms will remain very isolated. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/17/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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