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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, February 16, 2023

SPC Feb 16, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for isolated strong tornadoes. ...Central Gulf States to Ohio Valley... Upper low has shifted into the central High Plains late this evening. This feature is forecast to track across the Plains and deamplify, becoming more positive tilted as it moves into the MS Valley. Strong, broad southwesterly flow will be maintained at mid levels from TX into the lower Great Lakes through the period. A notable surface reflection will respond to this short wave, with a low forecast to track from the Ozarks at the start of the period, into southwest IN by 18z, then into upstate NY by 17/12z. This evolution should allow a modified warm sector to advance north of the OH River into southern portions of IN/OH during the afternoon. Even so, forecast buoyancy across this region is not expected to be that significant, but strongly sheared convection will be capable of generating damaging winds within a pronounced low-level warm advection regime. Farther south across the central Gulf States, a corridor of strong/severe supercells should be ongoing at the start of the period from eastern AR into western TN Valley. Strong ESRH, in excess of 300 M2/S2 will likely be maintained across much of MS/AL into the TN Valley ahead of the front. Though significant cloudiness will likely suppress daytime heating, temperatures should rise into the lower 70s across much of this region. Forecast soundings also exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates which will aid buoyancy for storms that develop ahead of the front. Early-day convection should spread east across middle TN into northern MS with additional storms expected to evolve farther south by mid day, extending across southwestern MS into portions of southeast LA before spreading across much of AL during the evening. While frontal forcing will likely contribute to line segments, and possibly an elongated MCS, wind profiles favor supercells. All hazards appear possible, especially south of the TN Valley, along with a risk for isolated strong tornadoes. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/16/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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