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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, February 14, 2023

SPC Feb 14, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from eastern Kansas into western Missouri Tuesday afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern KS/Western MO Region... Pronounced upper low has shifted in northwest NM late this evening. This feature is forecast to eject into central KS by 18z, then into IA during the evening as a strong 500mb jet translates through the base of the trough. 210-240m 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this ejecting short wave, which will result in a strongly forced frontal zone as it surges into eastern KS early in the period. Strengthening LLJ will aid northward movement of higher-quality moisture across the southern Plains. Surface dew points near 50F have advanced into north-central TX at 05z, with lower 40s into southern OK. While surface dew points may only rise into the mid 40s across the MRGL Risk area before frontal passage, very cold mid-level temperatures (-26 at 500mb) will result in very steep lapse rates (approaching 9 C/km). Scattered convection is currently ongoing ahead of the front across the OK/TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains. This activity will spread east of the I-35 corridor by 12z then into eastern MO/AR later in the day. Latest thinking is this early-day convection will not have sufficient buoyancy for an appreciable threat of severe. However, favorable surface heating immediately ahead of the surface low over KS should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 50s by 19-20z. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached with these readings and isolated supercells appear possible by mid afternoon. Surface-based convection may pose a risk of locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. Convection should spread into western MO then gradually weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Thorton.. 02/14/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)