LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS TO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from
eastern Kansas into western Missouri Tuesday afternoon into early
evening.
...Eastern KS/Western MO Region...
Pronounced upper low has shifted in northwest NM late this evening.
This feature is forecast to eject into central KS by 18z, then into
IA during the evening as a strong 500mb jet translates through the
base of the trough. 210-240m 12hr mid-level height falls will
develop ahead of this ejecting short wave, which will result in a
strongly forced frontal zone as it surges into eastern KS early in
the period.
Strengthening LLJ will aid northward movement of higher-quality
moisture across the southern Plains. Surface dew points near 50F
have advanced into north-central TX at 05z, with lower 40s into
southern OK. While surface dew points may only rise into the mid 40s
across the MRGL Risk area before frontal passage, very cold
mid-level temperatures (-26 at 500mb) will result in very steep
lapse rates (approaching 9 C/km).
Scattered convection is currently ongoing ahead of the front across
the OK/TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains. This activity will
spread east of the I-35 corridor by 12z then into eastern MO/AR
later in the day. Latest thinking is this early-day convection will
not have sufficient buoyancy for an appreciable threat of severe.
However, favorable surface heating immediately ahead of the surface
low over KS should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 50s by
19-20z. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be
breached with these readings and isolated supercells appear possible
by mid afternoon. Surface-based convection may pose a risk of
locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief
tornado. Convection should spread into western MO then gradually
weaken with loss of daytime heating.
..Darrow/Thorton.. 02/14/2023
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