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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, February 13, 2023

SPC Feb 13, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday. ...Discussion... Primary feature of concern this period is a notable upper low currently located over the northern Baja Peninsula. This low is forecast to eject across southern AZ during the day as a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern Mexico. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this ejecting short wave late in the period with values on the order of 240m expected Monday night over the southern High Plains from the TX Panhandle into western KS. Additionally, mid-level speed max should strengthen as it approaches western OK/northwest TX. Low-level trajectories will become favorable for transporting higher-quality moisture across the western Gulf Basin into the southern Plains, though boundary-layer dew points will likely remain inadequate for surface-based buoyancy late in the period. Even so, PW values will increase markedly across TX into OK during the latter half of the period such that elevated convection is expected ahead of the Pacific front that will surge into this region after 14/00z. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected north of the jet across much of the southwestern US from AZ into southwestern CO. Very cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates should result in sufficient instability for diurnally-enhanced convection. Another region where a few flashes of lightning may be noted is along the Pacific Northwest Coast. Latest model guidance depicts a very cold upper trough digging toward western WA/OR. Steepening lapse rates north of the jet will maximize the onshore marine influence with sufficient instability for low-topped convection. Low freezing levels could support a few storms. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/13/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)