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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, January 29, 2023

SPC Jan 29, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential may focus across parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Day 5/Thursday. An upper trough should eject from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this time frame. A related surface low is forecast to develop near and perhaps slightly inland across the central Gulf Coast vicinity by Thursday evening. There are still disparities in deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the northward extent of low-level moisture return, and how much instability can develop through Thursday afternoon. If some of the more aggressive model solutions regarding inland warm sector development verify, then at least an isolated severe threat will probably exist across parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle on Thursday. But, due to continued uncertainty regarding the placement/amplitude of the upper trough and related surface features, will defer possible introduction of a 15% severe area to a later outlook pending better model agreement. Some severe threat may persist on Day 6/Friday, mainly across parts of FL along/ahead of a southward-moving cold front. The upper trough will likely continue eastward across the remainder of the Southeast, but it remains unclear whether sufficient low-level moisture and instability will be in place ahead of the front to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorms. Have therefore maintained predictability too low highlights for Friday. After the front clears the coast, severe potential appears low next weekend across the CONUS. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)