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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, January 26, 2023

SPC Jan 26, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Beneath a confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies, cold surface ridging appears likely to overspread much of the central and eastern U.S. late this weekend into early next week. By Tuesday morning, the baroclinic zone demarcating the leading edge of the deeper cold air may extend from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states and the Ark-La-Tex into the Texas South Plains. However, the surface front on the shallow leading edge of the cold air may extend across the Gulf coastal plain, beneath a continuing return flow of Gulf moisture around the northwestern periphery of the persistent subtropical ridging. Around this same time, medium-range ensemble output indicates that initially prominent eastern Pacific ridging will begin to weaken more substantively. As the split flow over the Pacific trends less amplified into North America, the downstream Arctic low and subtropical high are forecast to gradually shift east of the Hudson Bay and Caribbean vicinities, respectively, through the latter portion of next week. Based on the 26/00Z ECMWF, there may be a little more uncertainty concerning whether an initially vigorous short wave trough digging into the Southwest is forced into and through the confluent regime to the east of the Rockies, or remains a bit more cut-off and maintains strength, before coming in phase with the subtropical stream and progressing to the east of the Rockies later next week. However, even this solution suggests that associated surface cyclogenesis (along the frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity) will remain rather modest through at least 12Z next Friday. The lack of stronger cyclogenesis is expected to remain a considerable limiting factor to potential for organized severe thunderstorm development through this period. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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