LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.
...Discussion...
It appears that a mid-level high may shift further northward toward
the Gulf of Alaska vicinity, within a larger-scale regime that will
continue to become highly amplified. Split flow downstream of a
sharp ridge axis extending across the northeastern Pacific into the
Arctic may include one intensifying cross polar branch extending
from near Siberia across the Northwest Territories, toward the
western Canadian/U.S. Border. A vigorous short wave impulse within
another branch emanating from closer to the northwestern Canadian
Arctic is forecast to dig across British Columbia toward the Pacific
Northwest.
Farther downstream, models indicate that these branches will back
from a northwesterly to westerly and west-southwesterly component
across southern Canada and the U.S., around the southern periphery
of a persistent broad deep mid-level low centered to the northeast
of Hudson Bay. Short waves within these branches are forecast to
remain mostly out of phase, with one vigorous perturbation
accelerating eastward to the north of the Great Lakes region. As a
shearing impulse within the southern of these two streams rapidly
accelerates east of the lower Mississippi Valley, and across the
southern Mid Atlantic coast, it appears that low amplitude mid-level
ridging will build across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, to
the north of persistent subtropical ridging centered over the
Caribbean.
In association with these developments, models indicate that cold
surface ridging (including a max pressure increasing in excess of
1050 mb) will build southward along the Canadian Rockies, and to the
lee of northern U.S. Rockies Friday through Friday night. The
leading edge of this Arctic air mass may overspread much of the
Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday.
Farther south, in the wake of a more modest cold intrusion, as the
center of surface ridging shifts from near the Gulf coast toward the
south Atlantic Coast, weak low pressure may form within developing
surface troughing to the east of the Colorado Rockies. A moist
return flow emanating from the western Gulf of Mexico may commence,
possibly including dew points increasing as high as 60 F by late
Friday night, above a lingering shallow near-surface stable layer
across the lower/middle Texas coast vicinity. However, it still
appears that this low-level moistening will be capped by relatively
warm air around and above the 700 mb level.
..Kerr.. 01/26/2023
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