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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, January 26, 2023

SPC Jan 26, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... It appears that a mid-level high may shift further northward toward the Gulf of Alaska vicinity, within a larger-scale regime that will continue to become highly amplified. Split flow downstream of a sharp ridge axis extending across the northeastern Pacific into the Arctic may include one intensifying cross polar branch extending from near Siberia across the Northwest Territories, toward the western Canadian/U.S. Border. A vigorous short wave impulse within another branch emanating from closer to the northwestern Canadian Arctic is forecast to dig across British Columbia toward the Pacific Northwest. Farther downstream, models indicate that these branches will back from a northwesterly to westerly and west-southwesterly component across southern Canada and the U.S., around the southern periphery of a persistent broad deep mid-level low centered to the northeast of Hudson Bay. Short waves within these branches are forecast to remain mostly out of phase, with one vigorous perturbation accelerating eastward to the north of the Great Lakes region. As a shearing impulse within the southern of these two streams rapidly accelerates east of the lower Mississippi Valley, and across the southern Mid Atlantic coast, it appears that low amplitude mid-level ridging will build across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, to the north of persistent subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean. In association with these developments, models indicate that cold surface ridging (including a max pressure increasing in excess of 1050 mb) will build southward along the Canadian Rockies, and to the lee of northern U.S. Rockies Friday through Friday night. The leading edge of this Arctic air mass may overspread much of the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. Farther south, in the wake of a more modest cold intrusion, as the center of surface ridging shifts from near the Gulf coast toward the south Atlantic Coast, weak low pressure may form within developing surface troughing to the east of the Colorado Rockies. A moist return flow emanating from the western Gulf of Mexico may commence, possibly including dew points increasing as high as 60 F by late Friday night, above a lingering shallow near-surface stable layer across the lower/middle Texas coast vicinity. However, it still appears that this low-level moistening will be capped by relatively warm air around and above the 700 mb level. ..Kerr.. 01/26/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)