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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, January 15, 2023

SPC Jan 15, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will move eastward from the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Wednesday. The surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the TX Panhandle early D4/Wednesday, before moving gradually east-northeastward across south-central KS/north-central OK into central MO. More prevalent to the severe weather potential will be a secondary, triple-point low expected to move from central TX northeastward across central AR and the Mid-South. As it does, a dryline/Pacific front will surge eastward across central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, interacting with the moist air mass in place over the region. Environmental conditions support strong to severe thunderstorms along this front as it moves eastward. Warm sector development ahead of the front appears possible as well. Vertical shear within the warm sector supports supercells, although modest thermodynamics (caused by warm low/mid-level temperatures) result in uncertainty regarding the persistence and coverage of any strong updrafts. All severe hazards would be possible with any warm-sector supercells that mature. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the most likely severe threat with thunderstorms along the front. Guidance remains consistent that this system will continue northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the front at it moves across the remainder of the Southeast, but displacement south from the parent system in tandem with marginal thermodynamics should limit the overall severe potential. Another strong upper trough is expected to drop southward through the western CONUS on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. By early D7/Saturday, evolution of this system will have contributed to overall upper pattern amplification, with upper troughing extending from western Ontario through the Southwest states. Gradual eastward progression of this deep upper trough is anticipated, but limited moisture return should temper the severe potential. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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