LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a strong
shortwave trough will move eastward from the Southwest into the
southern Plains on D4/Wednesday. The surface low associated with
this system will likely be centered over the TX Panhandle early
D4/Wednesday, before moving gradually east-northeastward across
south-central KS/north-central OK into central MO.
More prevalent to the severe weather potential will be a secondary,
triple-point low expected to move from central TX northeastward
across central AR and the Mid-South. As it does, a dryline/Pacific
front will surge eastward across central/east TX and the Lower MS
Valley, interacting with the moist air mass in place over the
region. Environmental conditions support strong to severe
thunderstorms along this front as it moves eastward. Warm sector
development ahead of the front appears possible as well. Vertical
shear within the warm sector supports supercells, although modest
thermodynamics (caused by warm low/mid-level temperatures) result in
uncertainty regarding the persistence and coverage of any strong
updrafts. All severe hazards would be possible with any warm-sector
supercells that mature. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the most
likely severe threat with thunderstorms along the front.
Guidance remains consistent that this system will continue
northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Thursday.
Thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the front at it
moves across the remainder of the Southeast, but displacement south
from the parent system in tandem with marginal thermodynamics should
limit the overall severe potential.
Another strong upper trough is expected to drop southward through
the western CONUS on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. By early
D7/Saturday, evolution of this system will have contributed to
overall upper pattern amplification, with upper troughing extending
from western Ontario through the Southwest states. Gradual eastward
progression of this deep upper trough is anticipated, but limited
moisture return should temper the severe potential.
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