LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA...FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin, far northwest Illinois, and
extreme northeast Missouri Monday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A mid-latitude cyclone is expected to be centered over the middle MO
Valley early Monday morning, before then continuing northeastward
through the Upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. Surface
low attendant to this cyclone will take the same trajectory while
occluding. At the same time, an associated triple point will
progress eastward, moving along the IA/MO border vicinity through
central IL. The cold front extending southwestward from this triple
point is expected to push eastward through the Mid MS Valley
throughout the day. Southern portion of this front initially
extending from central OK into the TX Hill Country is only expected
to make modest eastward progress before stalling.
The active pattern will continue across the western CONUS, with
another shortwave trough expected to drop southward across CA during
the period. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for
ascent could result in a few updrafts deep enough to produce
lightning across central CA. A few flashes are also possible farther
east from southern NV into northwest AZ, but coverage is expected to
remain less than 10 percent.
...Mid MS Valley...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air
advection regime expected to be over the region early Monday
morning. Limited buoyancy should mitigate thunderstorm strength.
Additional thunderstorms are possible from eastern IA into northwest
IL and far southwest WI during the afternoon as strong diurnal
heating fosters destabilization amid modest low-level moisture and
cold mid-level temperatures. Forcing for ascent along the front
within this destabilized airmass will likely result in an arcing
band of thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. Proximity to the
surface low will result in low-level vertical shear that supports
updraft rotation. This low-level shear coupled with steep low-level
lapse rates may result in the development of a few supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including a tornado or two.
..Mosier.. 01/15/2023
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