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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, January 15, 2023

SPC Jan 15, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin, far northwest Illinois, and extreme northeast Missouri Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is expected to be centered over the middle MO Valley early Monday morning, before then continuing northeastward through the Upper MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. Surface low attendant to this cyclone will take the same trajectory while occluding. At the same time, an associated triple point will progress eastward, moving along the IA/MO border vicinity through central IL. The cold front extending southwestward from this triple point is expected to push eastward through the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. Southern portion of this front initially extending from central OK into the TX Hill Country is only expected to make modest eastward progress before stalling. The active pattern will continue across the western CONUS, with another shortwave trough expected to drop southward across CA during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent could result in a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning across central CA. A few flashes are also possible farther east from southern NV into northwest AZ, but coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent. ...Mid MS Valley... Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air advection regime expected to be over the region early Monday morning. Limited buoyancy should mitigate thunderstorm strength. Additional thunderstorms are possible from eastern IA into northwest IL and far southwest WI during the afternoon as strong diurnal heating fosters destabilization amid modest low-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures. Forcing for ascent along the front within this destabilized airmass will likely result in an arcing band of thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. Proximity to the surface low will result in low-level vertical shear that supports updraft rotation. This low-level shear coupled with steep low-level lapse rates may result in the development of a few supercells capable of all severe hazards, including a tornado or two. ..Mosier.. 01/15/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)