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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

SPC Nov 9, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes should occur Thursday into Thursday night over parts of Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas in association with Tropical Cyclone Nicole. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also appear possible across portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with damaging winds the main threat. ...Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... The latest forecast from the NHC indicates that Nicole will be located over the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. A northwestward to northward turn should occur through Thursday night, with Nicole likely present over GA by early Friday morning. The enhanced (50-60+ kt at 850 mb) low-level wind fields on the north through east side of Nicole should spread inland across north FL into GA and parts of the Carolinas through the period. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will advance inland across this region. Weak instability should develop where surface dewpoints can increase into the low 70s with even modest daytime heating. This appears most probable across coastal portions of northeast FL into southern/coastal GA and SC through Thursday afternoon. Strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and a tornado threat with any low-topped supercells that can develop and be sustained in Nicole's outer rain bands. With increased confidence in sufficient instability overlapping the strong low-level shear, have introduced greater tornado probabilities and a Slight Risk. The threat for a few tornadoes will likely continue and gradually shift northward Thursday evening through early Friday morning across parts of SC into southern NC. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Within large-scale upper troughing over much of the western/central CONUS, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. A related surface low should develop northeastward across MN into northern WI through the day. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across much of the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Shallow low-level moisture return will occur ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Most guidance continues to show a fast progression with both the shortwave trough and cold front across the central Plains and Upper Midwest during the day. This should tend to limit the width of the warm sector and potential for robust diurnal heating to occur ahead of the front. Still, a narrow zone of weak instability is forecast to develop by Thursday afternoon, with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will be present, which should support updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can strengthen along the front. Damaging winds should be the main threat given the strength of the low-level flow, but a brief tornado may also occur. With the faster system progression shown in latest guidance, the Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been shrunk and adjusted northeastward a bit. The trailing portion of the cold front into eastern KS and western MO now appears less likely to have robust thunderstorm development, although isolated strong/gusty winds still appear possible with a low-topped line as the front passes. The severe threat across the Upper Midwest should quickly wane Thursday evening with the loss of daytime heating and as the warm sector gets pinched off with northeastward extent in WI. ..Gleason.. 11/09/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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