LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes should occur Thursday into Thursday night over parts
of Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas in association
with Tropical Cyclone Nicole. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms also appear possible across portions of the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest, with damaging winds the main threat.
...Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas...
The latest forecast from the NHC indicates that Nicole will be
located over the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. A
northwestward to northward turn should occur through Thursday night,
with Nicole likely present over GA by early Friday morning. The
enhanced (50-60+ kt at 850 mb) low-level wind fields on the north
through east side of Nicole should spread inland across north FL
into GA and parts of the Carolinas through the period. As this
occurs, rich low-level moisture will advance inland across this
region.
Weak instability should develop where surface dewpoints can increase
into the low 70s with even modest daytime heating. This appears most
probable across coastal portions of northeast FL into
southern/coastal GA and SC through Thursday afternoon. Strong
low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and a tornado threat
with any low-topped supercells that can develop and be sustained in
Nicole's outer rain bands. With increased confidence in sufficient
instability overlapping the strong low-level shear, have introduced
greater tornado probabilities and a Slight Risk. The threat for a
few tornadoes will likely continue and gradually shift northward
Thursday evening through early Friday morning across parts of SC
into southern NC.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of the western/central
CONUS, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. A
related surface low should develop northeastward across MN into
northern WI through the day. An attendant cold front will sweep
eastward across much of the central/southern Plains and Upper
Midwest through the period.
Shallow low-level moisture return will occur ahead of this cold
front, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Most guidance continues to show a fast progression with both the
shortwave trough and cold front across the central Plains and Upper
Midwest during the day. This should tend to limit the width of the
warm sector and potential for robust diurnal heating to occur ahead
of the front. Still, a narrow zone of weak instability is forecast
to develop by Thursday afternoon, with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
possible.
Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will be present, which should
support updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can
strengthen along the front. Damaging winds should be the main threat
given the strength of the low-level flow, but a brief tornado may
also occur. With the faster system progression shown in latest
guidance, the Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been shrunk
and adjusted northeastward a bit. The trailing portion of the cold
front into eastern KS and western MO now appears less likely to have
robust thunderstorm development, although isolated strong/gusty
winds still appear possible with a low-topped line as the front
passes. The severe threat across the Upper Midwest should quickly
wane Thursday evening with the loss of daytime heating and as the
warm sector gets pinched off with northeastward extent in WI.
..Gleason.. 11/09/2022
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