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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

SPC Nov 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop this afternoon and persist through tonight across parts of the eastern Florida Peninsula. ...Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Nicole to strengthen into a hurricane and approach the eastern Florida Peninsula today. The hurricane is expected to make landfall just to the north of the Palm Beach vicinity. By this afternoon, the northern quadrant of the hurricane will begin to move inland across the eastern Florida Peninsula. As the center of the hurricane approaches the Florida east coast, 0-1 km shear will steadily increase from about 30 knots at 18Z to about 40 knots by 03Z this evening. In response, the tornado threat will gradually increase during the afternoon and evening. Rotating cells that move into the coastal sections will likely be associated with a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized inland within 50 statute miles of the coast, where instability will be maximized and frictional affects will be favorable for mesocyclone development. As Hurricane Nicole moves across the Florida Peninsula tonight, the tornado threat will continue across the northeast quadrant of the system. A strong tornado will be possible with the more intense supercells, with the greatest threat during the late evening and overnight period. ...Southern Nebraska... A cold front will move into the central Plains this evening as a surface low develops across south-central Nebraska. Instability is forecast to increase ahead of the front as low-level moisture advects northward. During the overnight period, convection will likely develop along the front and move eastward across southern Nebraska. The stronger winds are forecast to be ahead of the front and not co-located with the convection, suggesting that a severe threat is likely to be mitigated. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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