LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate substantive further amplification within
the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into
adjacent portions of North America during this period. This likely
will include a building ridge, with an increasingly prominent
embedded mid-level high evolving near the southern British Columbia
coast. To the east and southeast of this feature, several short
wave perturbations are forecast to dig within branching downstream
flow across the Canadian Prairies and western U.S. Within one
branch, larger-scale mid-level troughing may begin to evolve across
the central Canadian/U.S. border and northern Great Plains vicinity,
while a significant downstream impulse emerging from the Ohio Valley
supports surface cyclogenesis across the Canadian Maritimes
vicinity. A vigorous short wave trough within another branch is
generally forecast to dig from the southern Great Basin into the
southern Rockies by 12Z Monday.
A cold front trailing the developing cyclone likely will accelerate
away from the Atlantic Seaboard, but it may begin to stall and
weaken across southern Florida and the southeastern into central
Gulf of Mexico. Cold surface ridging probably will remain
entrenched across the Gulf Coast, and much of the remainder of the
U.S., but it does appear that a southerly return flow emanating from
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will begin to develop above the
residual near-surface stable layer inland of the Texas coast.
Elevated moistening through late Sunday night probably will remain
rather modest to weak, particularly inland of the south Texas
coastal plain, but it still may become sufficient to support
increasing convection and embedded thunderstorms, in the presence of
strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse
rates across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Monday. It appears
that this will be supported by forcing associated with the short
wave digging into the southern Rockies, which may also contribute to
convection capable of producing lightning across the Colorado
Plateau and Four Corners vicinity late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.
..Kerr.. 11/12/2022
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