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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, November 12, 2022

SPC Nov 12, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate substantive further amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into adjacent portions of North America during this period. This likely will include a building ridge, with an increasingly prominent embedded mid-level high evolving near the southern British Columbia coast. To the east and southeast of this feature, several short wave perturbations are forecast to dig within branching downstream flow across the Canadian Prairies and western U.S. Within one branch, larger-scale mid-level troughing may begin to evolve across the central Canadian/U.S. border and northern Great Plains vicinity, while a significant downstream impulse emerging from the Ohio Valley supports surface cyclogenesis across the Canadian Maritimes vicinity. A vigorous short wave trough within another branch is generally forecast to dig from the southern Great Basin into the southern Rockies by 12Z Monday. A cold front trailing the developing cyclone likely will accelerate away from the Atlantic Seaboard, but it may begin to stall and weaken across southern Florida and the southeastern into central Gulf of Mexico. Cold surface ridging probably will remain entrenched across the Gulf Coast, and much of the remainder of the U.S., but it does appear that a southerly return flow emanating from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will begin to develop above the residual near-surface stable layer inland of the Texas coast. Elevated moistening through late Sunday night probably will remain rather modest to weak, particularly inland of the south Texas coastal plain, but it still may become sufficient to support increasing convection and embedded thunderstorms, in the presence of strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Monday. It appears that this will be supported by forcing associated with the short wave digging into the southern Rockies, which may also contribute to convection capable of producing lightning across the Colorado Plateau and Four Corners vicinity late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 11/12/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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