LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
Within branching westerlies, models continue to indicate that a
significant mid-level low (including a 500 mb cold core to -30C)
will dig inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Basin during
this period, as upstream mid-level ridging gradually begins to
become more prominent near and west of the British Columbia coast.
Downstream, it appears that flow may trend a bit less amplified east
of the Rockies into the Atlantic Seaboard, with one consolidating
short wave trough shifting through the middle to upper Ohio Valley
by the end of the period. It appears that a sharp cold front
preceding this developing mid-level perturbation will reach the
Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of the remnants of Nicole, which are
generally forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across and
offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic and New England coast by late
Saturday afternoon. However, models suggest that deep-layered
moisture will have already advected offshore of much of the Atlantic
Seaboard by 12Z Saturday, in advance of a preceding lower/mid
tropospheric wind shift.
Remnant moisture across portions of the central and southern Florida
Peninsula may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a
risk for a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible
in the vicinity of the eastward advancing cold front, mainly near
the Gulf coast. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions
are expected to prevail across much of the nation.
..Kerr.. 11/11/2022
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