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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, November 11, 2022

SPC Nov 11, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Within branching westerlies, models continue to indicate that a significant mid-level low (including a 500 mb cold core to -30C) will dig inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Basin during this period, as upstream mid-level ridging gradually begins to become more prominent near and west of the British Columbia coast. Downstream, it appears that flow may trend a bit less amplified east of the Rockies into the Atlantic Seaboard, with one consolidating short wave trough shifting through the middle to upper Ohio Valley by the end of the period. It appears that a sharp cold front preceding this developing mid-level perturbation will reach the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of the remnants of Nicole, which are generally forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across and offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic and New England coast by late Saturday afternoon. However, models suggest that deep-layered moisture will have already advected offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Saturday, in advance of a preceding lower/mid tropospheric wind shift. Remnant moisture across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible in the vicinity of the eastward advancing cold front, mainly near the Gulf coast. Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation. ..Kerr.. 11/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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