LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may eventually become capable of a
brief/weak tornado or two today over the Mid Atlantic states, while
large hail may occur over parts of southern Texas.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
The remnants of Nicole will move from GA across the Appalachians
during the day, weakening as it begins to phase with the
larger-scale upper trough approaching from the west. Mid to upper
60s F dewpoints will spread north out of the Carolinas and into VA
ahead of the surface low but SBCAPE is forecast to be minimal at 500
J/kg or less given relatively warm temperatures aloft. An initial
band of storms may be ongoing across eastern NC, and effective SRH
may be sufficient to enhance rotation within the stronger storms.
Later in the day, lift will increase ahead of the primary vorticity
max and surface low, and a secondary arcing line of storms may
materialize across central NC and VA after about 20Z. Low-level wind
shear will conditionally favor rotation, however, it is unclear how
much SBCAPE will be present to support severe storms. In the end, a
brief/weak tornado or two cannot be ruled out across the warm sector
this afternoon, if dewpoints can rise to near 70 F.
...Central into southern TX...
A cold front will surge south across central TX during the day, and
this will undercut a moist air mass. Temperatures aloft will be cold
with the upper trough moving overhead, and long hodographs may
support sporadic elevated hail with the early/midday activity from
San Angelo eastward.
Later in the afternoon, the front will move into southern TX, and
instability will be stronger here. Given favorable deep-layer
effective shear, some of these storms may produce large hail. It is
uncertain how long storms will be able to stay along the front
before getting undercut, and this lowers wind probabilities. In
either case, hail appears likely with the stronger cells, possibly
moving toward the Corpus Christi area near 00Z.
..Jewell/Wendt.. 11/11/2022
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