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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, November 11, 2022

SPC Nov 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may eventually become capable of a brief/weak tornado or two today over the Mid Atlantic states, while large hail may occur over parts of southern Texas. ...Mid Atlantic Region... The remnants of Nicole will move from GA across the Appalachians during the day, weakening as it begins to phase with the larger-scale upper trough approaching from the west. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will spread north out of the Carolinas and into VA ahead of the surface low but SBCAPE is forecast to be minimal at 500 J/kg or less given relatively warm temperatures aloft. An initial band of storms may be ongoing across eastern NC, and effective SRH may be sufficient to enhance rotation within the stronger storms. Later in the day, lift will increase ahead of the primary vorticity max and surface low, and a secondary arcing line of storms may materialize across central NC and VA after about 20Z. Low-level wind shear will conditionally favor rotation, however, it is unclear how much SBCAPE will be present to support severe storms. In the end, a brief/weak tornado or two cannot be ruled out across the warm sector this afternoon, if dewpoints can rise to near 70 F. ...Central into southern TX... A cold front will surge south across central TX during the day, and this will undercut a moist air mass. Temperatures aloft will be cold with the upper trough moving overhead, and long hodographs may support sporadic elevated hail with the early/midday activity from San Angelo eastward. Later in the afternoon, the front will move into southern TX, and instability will be stronger here. Given favorable deep-layer effective shear, some of these storms may produce large hail. It is uncertain how long storms will be able to stay along the front before getting undercut, and this lowers wind probabilities. In either case, hail appears likely with the stronger cells, possibly moving toward the Corpus Christi area near 00Z. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 11/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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