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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

SPC Oct 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds and hail, are expected this afternoon through the early evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains today. At the surface a strong cold front will extend from the western Great Lakes to the Ozarks Wednesday morning and from the eastern Great Lakes to the mid-South by Thursday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of this front this afternoon into the early overnight hours from the Ohio Valley to the mid-South. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... The airmass will be very dry to start the day across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but surface dewpoints will increase rapidly through the morning as low-level flow strengthens and brings 60s dewpoints northward. This will result in increasing instability by mid-afternoon as temperatures increase into the 80s south of the decaying overnight convection across the Lower Ohio Valley. A few supercells may develop on the southern end of this decaying activity during the afternoon. Low-level flow will be relatively weak ( CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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