LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms today appears
generally low.
...West Texas into Southern Oklahoma...
The weak upper trough/low centered over southern AZ and northwestern
Mexico is forecast to lose definition today as it becomes absorbed
into a southern branch of the mid-level westerlies. Modest low-level
moisture return, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s, should
occur over the southern High Plains through the day. Most guidance
suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms should be ongoing at
the start of the period this morning across parts of west TX and
perhaps southern OK. This activity appears tied to modest low-level
warm advection.
Filtered daytime heating to the south of the morning activity should
encourage weak instability to develop in a fairly narrow corridor
from far west into northwest TX and southern OK by late this
afternoon. The modest low-level moisture should keep MLCAPE mostly
in the 500-1000 J/kg range across these areas. Weak low to mid-level
flow should also tend to limit deep-layer shear, although veering
winds with height are forecast. Current expectations are for
scattered thunderstorms that develop across west TX this afternoon
to become only loosely organized, with effective bulk shear peaking
around 20-25 kt. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the
strongest cores, confidence in a more organized/substantial severe
threat remains too low to include any probabilities for hail/wind at
this time.
..Gleason.. 10/10/2022
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