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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, October 10, 2022

SPC Oct 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms today appears generally low. ...West Texas into Southern Oklahoma... The weak upper trough/low centered over southern AZ and northwestern Mexico is forecast to lose definition today as it becomes absorbed into a southern branch of the mid-level westerlies. Modest low-level moisture return, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s, should occur over the southern High Plains through the day. Most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period this morning across parts of west TX and perhaps southern OK. This activity appears tied to modest low-level warm advection. Filtered daytime heating to the south of the morning activity should encourage weak instability to develop in a fairly narrow corridor from far west into northwest TX and southern OK by late this afternoon. The modest low-level moisture should keep MLCAPE mostly in the 500-1000 J/kg range across these areas. Weak low to mid-level flow should also tend to limit deep-layer shear, although veering winds with height are forecast. Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms that develop across west TX this afternoon to become only loosely organized, with effective bulk shear peaking around 20-25 kt. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the strongest cores, confidence in a more organized/substantial severe threat remains too low to include any probabilities for hail/wind at this time. ..Gleason.. 10/10/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC