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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

SPC Sep 6, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday afternoon and evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Remnants of mid-level troughing emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, likely reaching the eastern Canadian Prairies by 12Z Thursday, may gradually become absorbed within flow around a deep mid-level low forecast to turn westward and southward to the northwest of Hudson Bay through daybreak Friday. It appears that this will be accompanied by the northeastward migration of a surface cyclone from central Manitoba through southern Hudson Bay. In the wake of this feature, models indicate that a cold front will advance southeastward into the upper Great Lakes vicinity and northern Great Plains, as trailing mid-level troughing digs into the northern Rockies, in advance of amplified troughing/ridging across Alaska and the northeastern Pacific into the far western Canadian provinces. Coinciding with these developments, substantive further suppression of the Great Basin mid-level high is forecast, while Kay migrates northwestward off the southern Baja coast, and a broad low become better developed within weak flow centered near the Louisiana coast. Weak mid-level troughing is also forecast to shift off the northern/mid Atlantic coast, with an associated front stalling and weakening across the southern Mid Atlantic coast into Tennessee Valley and Mid South vicinity. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Although the northward return of seasonably high moisture content will be impeded, a corridor of modest moisture is currently present ahead of surface troughing across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains. Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which is forecast to advect as far east-northeast as the Lake Superior vicinity before becoming cut off, a narrow pre-frontal corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg may develop across parts of northeastern Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon. While this is fairly modest, the steep lapse rates, coupled with sufficient vertical shear near the southern periphery of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, may contribute to an environment at least marginally conducive to organized severe convection. This may initially include a supercell or two, with severe hail and wind the primary potential hazards. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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