SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Minimal change to the large-scale pattern is expected across the
CONUS on Thursday. The upper trough across the East is forecast to
amplify through the period, while little movement is expected with
the ridge over the Intermountain West and High Plains and the upper
low off of the Pacific Northwest coast. At the surface, a cold front
will continue to push southward into parts of the Carolinas and
Southeast, while another front becomes nearly stationary across the
northern Plains and Midwest.
The severe threat for Thursday appears relatively limited at this
time. The most favorable overlap of instability and deep-layer
flow/shear is expected near the front across the northern Plains,
but stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain on the cool
side of the boundary, potentially limiting the potential for
surface-based storms through the period. A few stronger storms will
be possible in association with the front moving through the
Carolinas and Southeast, but details regarding the timing of the
front and location of the greatest threat are too uncertain to
include wind probabilities at this forecast range.
..Dean.. 08/09/2022
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