SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather appears unlikely across the CONUS on
Wednesday.
...Discussion...
The pattern on Wednesday will feature an upper high over the central
Rockies, an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest, and upper
troughing from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary front will extend roughly from the Mid Atlantic
into the southern Plains, with 60s F dewpoints and a few 70s F
common along the boundary. While winds aloft will increase across
the Great Lakes as the main jet max moves from Ontario into Quebec,
any substantial shear is forecast to remain well north of the
surface front. As such, scattered storms from northern TX to the Mid
Atlantic are expected to be largely non-severe, though a few strong
gusts may occur during the peak heating hours.
To the west, 40 kt southerlies at 500 mb will remain over OR and WA,
with a weak surface trough east of the Cascades. MLCAPE is forecast
to be below 500 J/kg, with straight-line hodographs. This may
support a few cells during the afternoon and evening, but forecast
soundings show relatively poor midlevel lapse rates despite the
upper low to the west. As such, severe weather is currently not
forecast.
..Jewell.. 08/08/2022
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