SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather appears unlikely on Sunday across the CONUS.
...Synopsis...
The NAM/SREF members show an upper low moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday, and this scenario is a strong outlier when
compared to the GEFS and ECMWF. As such, that solution is generally
being disregarded.
The most likely setup is for a low-amplitude positive-tilt shortwave
trough to move from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes
during the day, then into the Northeast by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an
east-west mean ridge will extend from Four Corners to the Mid
Atlantic.
At the surface, a cold front will extend roughly from northern Lower
MI and WI into KS during the day, and will reach northern MO into
northwest OK by 12Z Monday. Widespread 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
will remain south and east of this front, favoring daytime
thunderstorms across the WI and MI area where lift along the front
will be strongest. Although unstable ahead of the cold front, the
stronger flow aloft will remain too far north to support any
organized severe threat.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2022
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