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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, August 5, 2022

SPC Aug 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather appears unlikely on Sunday across the CONUS. ...Synopsis... The NAM/SREF members show an upper low moving across the northern Plains on Sunday, and this scenario is a strong outlier when compared to the GEFS and ECMWF. As such, that solution is generally being disregarded. The most likely setup is for a low-amplitude positive-tilt shortwave trough to move from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes during the day, then into the Northeast by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an east-west mean ridge will extend from Four Corners to the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will extend roughly from northern Lower MI and WI into KS during the day, and will reach northern MO into northwest OK by 12Z Monday. Widespread 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will remain south and east of this front, favoring daytime thunderstorms across the WI and MI area where lift along the front will be strongest. Although unstable ahead of the cold front, the stronger flow aloft will remain too far north to support any organized severe threat. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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