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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 30, 2022

SPC Aug 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday morning will shift east/northeast over Quebec and New England. A surface cold front will extend southward across western ME to just offshore from the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic coast. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front, but severe potential will remain limited due to weak heating and the front quickly shifting east across the region during the morning/early afternoon. The western extent of the surface cold front will reside along the coastal Carolinas to portions of central/southern MS/AL into central TX early Wednesday. Disorganized thunderstorms will be possible in a very moist and modestly unstable airmass. However, very weak vertical shear and a lack of large-scale forcing will limit severe potential. Some post-frontal upslope flow across the central High Plains will develop during the afternoon/evening. A very deeply mixed boundary layer will reside across northeast CO into central NE, with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles evident in forecast soundings. Nevertheless, enough instability will be in place (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) as a weak shortwave impulse emerges over the region, and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Cloud bases will likely be around 10-12 kft, with shallow convective depth. Nevertheless, very steep low-level lapse rates and effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt may be sufficient for a couple briefly strong storms capable of gusty outflow winds. Severe potential appears too limited/conditional to include marginal wind probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 08/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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