SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday morning will shift east/northeast over Quebec and New
England. A surface cold front will extend southward across western
ME to just offshore from the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic
coast. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
vicinity of the front, but severe potential will remain limited due
to weak heating and the front quickly shifting east across the
region during the morning/early afternoon.
The western extent of the surface cold front will reside along the
coastal Carolinas to portions of central/southern MS/AL into central
TX early Wednesday. Disorganized thunderstorms will be possible in a
very moist and modestly unstable airmass. However, very weak
vertical shear and a lack of large-scale forcing will limit severe
potential.
Some post-frontal upslope flow across the central High Plains will
develop during the afternoon/evening. A very deeply mixed boundary
layer will reside across northeast CO into central NE, with
inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles evident in forecast
soundings. Nevertheless, enough instability will be in place
(500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) as a weak shortwave impulse emerges over the
region, and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Cloud bases will
likely be around 10-12 kft, with shallow convective depth.
Nevertheless, very steep low-level lapse rates and effective shear
magnitudes around 20-25 kt may be sufficient for a couple briefly
strong storms capable of gusty outflow winds. Severe potential
appears too limited/conditional to include marginal wind
probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/30/2022
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