SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening over central Illinois. The primary hazard will be damaging
gusts.
...MO/IL/IN...
A mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to pivot
eastward towards the Great Lakes tonight. Several boundaries of
notable importance are draped across the mid MS Valley into the
Wabash Valley early this evening. It is the area centered over
central IL where convective overturning has yet to occur and a
moist/unstable airmass remains in place. Scattered thunderstorms
will likely continue through the evening with storms preferentially
developing near a front over northern MO and near the intersection
of outflow near the IN/IL border. A gradual weakening in storm
intensity is expected this evening with the threat diminishing by
the early overnight. Isolated severe gusts will be capable of a
wind-damage threat in the meantime. Refer to MCD #1747 for
short-term details.
...West TX...
An organized cold pool associated with a southward-moving MCS is
located over the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin this
evening. Although large-scale forcing for ascent is negligible, the
cold-pool dynamics will at least foster a maintenance of the MCS for
the next few hours before eventually dissipating near the Concho
Valley. Severe gusts will be possible near the heavier
precipitation cores. Refer to MCD #1748 for short-term convective
details.
...Lower Great Lakes...
A long-lived MCS over the Lake Erie/southern Ontario vicinity will
continue east over the Lower Great Lakes region this evening in
advance of the amplifying upstream mid-level wave. Cooler, more
stable conditions are present early this evening over western PA
northeastward to the Finger Lakes region. However, the area near
the immediate Lake Erie shore is moist/unstable with dewpoints in
the upper 60s-70 deg F. A localized wind-damage risk may continue
through the 02-03z period.
..Smith.. 08/30/2022
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