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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, August 29, 2022

SPC Aug 30, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over central Illinois. The primary hazard will be damaging gusts. ...MO/IL/IN... A mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to pivot eastward towards the Great Lakes tonight. Several boundaries of notable importance are draped across the mid MS Valley into the Wabash Valley early this evening. It is the area centered over central IL where convective overturning has yet to occur and a moist/unstable airmass remains in place. Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue through the evening with storms preferentially developing near a front over northern MO and near the intersection of outflow near the IN/IL border. A gradual weakening in storm intensity is expected this evening with the threat diminishing by the early overnight. Isolated severe gusts will be capable of a wind-damage threat in the meantime. Refer to MCD #1747 for short-term details. ...West TX... An organized cold pool associated with a southward-moving MCS is located over the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin this evening. Although large-scale forcing for ascent is negligible, the cold-pool dynamics will at least foster a maintenance of the MCS for the next few hours before eventually dissipating near the Concho Valley. Severe gusts will be possible near the heavier precipitation cores. Refer to MCD #1748 for short-term convective details. ...Lower Great Lakes... A long-lived MCS over the Lake Erie/southern Ontario vicinity will continue east over the Lower Great Lakes region this evening in advance of the amplifying upstream mid-level wave. Cooler, more stable conditions are present early this evening over western PA northeastward to the Finger Lakes region. However, the area near the immediate Lake Erie shore is moist/unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s-70 deg F. A localized wind-damage risk may continue through the 02-03z period. ..Smith.. 08/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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