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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, August 25, 2022

SPC Aug 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of western Montana and into the central and northern High Plains today. Severe gusts and large hail are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the eastern U.S. as a pair of mid-level impulses traverse the northern Rockies and northern High Plains today. Mainly general thunderstorms are expected to develop under the cyclonic upper flow regime across the Mid MS and OH Valleys as well as the Southeast/Florida this afternoon. A strong to potentially severe wind gust could develop with storms ahead of the cold front along the MO/IL border, or with pulse-cellular convection in FL, but the severe threat should remain too sparse to warrant severe probabilities. On the other hand, modest convective organization could occur with storms associated with the aforementioned mid-level impulses across parts of western MT and along the WY/SD border area despite weak shear. Scattered strong storms appear likely, and low-end organized severe potential could be realized. ...Western Montana Vicinity... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop by early to mid-afternoon across far western MT given adequate diurnal heating and the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A modestly moist low-level airmass overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the storms. Modest mid-level westerly flow associated with the passing impulse will overspread southeasterly low-level flow, contributing to somewhat curved, elongated hodographs. The anticipated overlapping kinematic/thermodynamic profiles should support multicellular storm clusters and perhaps a couple of transient supercells, accompanied by mainly an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ...Central into northern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the immediate lee of the Rockies over eastern WY by afternoon. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading surface temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Upslope easterly low-level flow will veer to more westerly in the mid-levels, contributing to modestly curved hodographs, supporting multicell/transient supercell structures initially. Very isolated bouts of large hail will be the primary threat with these storms, with severe gusts gradually becoming a greater concern as storms and their cold pools merge. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 08/25/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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