SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may continue to impact parts of the northern
Intermountain Region into northern Rockies and parts of the Upper
Midwest this evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
wind and hail.
...01Z Update...
...Northwest...
Steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are contributing to at
least pockets of moderate destabilization beneath, and within a zone
of strong forcing for ascent downstream of, a slow moving mid-level
low currently centered over eastern Washington. This may support
continuing isolated strong thunderstorm development posing at least
some risk for severe hail and wind, particularly where deep-layer
shear may be conducive to a supercell structure or two across the
mountains of north central Idaho into western Montana.
...Upper Midwest...
Shear is modest within 20 kt west/northwesterly deep-layer ambient
mean flow, and lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are generally
weak, but sizable mixed-layer CAPE (up to around 2000 J/kg) within a
seasonably moist environment near a weak surface low centered over
southeastern Minnesota is contributing to increasing thunderstorm
development. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with a digging
mid-level perturbation, it might still be possible that a sufficient
clustering with consolidating cold pools emerges to support
increasing risk for localized strong gusts before activity weakens
overnight.
..Kerr.. 08/25/2022
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