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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

SPC Aug 25, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may continue to impact parts of the northern Intermountain Region into northern Rockies and parts of the Upper Midwest this evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Update... ...Northwest... Steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are contributing to at least pockets of moderate destabilization beneath, and within a zone of strong forcing for ascent downstream of, a slow moving mid-level low currently centered over eastern Washington. This may support continuing isolated strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind, particularly where deep-layer shear may be conducive to a supercell structure or two across the mountains of north central Idaho into western Montana. ...Upper Midwest... Shear is modest within 20 kt west/northwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow, and lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are generally weak, but sizable mixed-layer CAPE (up to around 2000 J/kg) within a seasonably moist environment near a weak surface low centered over southeastern Minnesota is contributing to increasing thunderstorm development. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with a digging mid-level perturbation, it might still be possible that a sufficient clustering with consolidating cold pools emerges to support increasing risk for localized strong gusts before activity weakens overnight. ..Kerr.. 08/25/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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