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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 23, 2022

SPC Aug 23, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...CENTERED ON PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...NORTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening, centered on portions of Arizona, North Dakota, and southern New England. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. Reduced probabilities over southeast NY based on recent radar/satellite data favoring the stronger storm activity remaining east of the area. Reference Mesoscale Convective Discussion #1714 for the latest short-term details. ..Smith.. 08/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ ...Lower CO Valley to south-central AZ... Full insolation this morning in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will yield a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg south of the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the Rim and drift to the south-southwest within a belt of 10-15 kt 500-600 mb flow. Localized severe gusts will be possible as convection spreads into the lower deserts including the greater Phoenix metro area. The lack of stronger shear should limit potential for a more organized severe wind event. ...Central/northern ND... 16Z surface analysis placed a couple of 1013-mb lows near the MT/ND border and the SK/MB/ND border along a weak quasi-stationary front. A minor mid-level vort max attendant to the latter wave should drift southeast, aiding in scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon across northern to central ND. A compact belt of enhanced upper-level flow may be adequate for a couple stronger cells given moderate mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z Bismarck sounding. These cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and localized strong to marginally severe gusts. ...Southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms are underway across the Hudson Valley downstream of a mid-level trough centered on the Upper St. Lawrence Valley, with more isolated activity farther south. Boundary-layer heating has been more robust across the Tri-State area in the NYC vicinity, with stratus still holding across most of MA/RI. This should result in a confined corridor having a modest combination of buoyancy and mid-level flow over southern New England. In this area, a few wet microbursts capable of locally damaging winds are possible through the rest of the afternoon. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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