SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and early
evening across parts of central/east Texas to Louisiana/southwest
Mississippi, with additional locally severe storms possible across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this outlook is to trim the Marginal Risk
across parts of Texas, in the wake of ongoing convection. Otherwise,
only minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm
lines. See the previous outlook below for more details, and MCD 1712
for more information regarding the short-term risk across parts of
Louisiana.
..Dean.. 08/22/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022/
..Central/east Texas Louisiana/southern Mississippi...
Widespread/persistent convection across North Texas this morning
should result in a slow southward movement of an east-west
baroclinic zone into central TX east to northern/central LA this
afternoon as a broad/weak surface low near the DFW area moves slowly
east. Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass characterized by PW
values of 2-2.4 inches will contribute to moderate destabilization
within a largely uncapped environment, and a few stronger storms
will be capable of damaging downburst winds. Some potential for
transient low-level rotation will continue east of the surface low
near an effective warm front across east TX into central LA, where
subtle low-level veering in forecast wind profiles will exist.
...Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
Variable cloud cover across the area has led to steady
heating/destabilization through 16z, with moderate SBCAPE expected
by afternoon within a largely uncapped environment. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a cold front and over
the higher terrain, with storms generally moving east through early
evening. West/southwest mid-level flow of 20-30 kts will be
sufficient for multicell storm structures capable of strong/locally
severe gusts.
...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley...
While a couple of stronger storms could materialize mainly along the
Mogollon Rim late this afternoon through early evening, the overall
convective potential across the region should be lower in the wake
of Sunday night's MCS.
...Idaho/far western Montana...
Upper trough and associated large-scale ascent over the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia will contribute to increasing (mostly
dry) thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening. A
warm and well-mixed boundary layer and modest strengthening of
mid-level westerly flow may result in very isolated stronger wind
gusts, although the potential for organized severe storms is
currently expected to remain low. Please refer to the SPC Day 1 Fire
Outlook for additional details.
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