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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, August 22, 2022

SPC Aug 22, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of central/east Texas to Louisiana/southwest Mississippi, with additional locally severe storms possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this outlook is to trim the Marginal Risk across parts of Texas, in the wake of ongoing convection. Otherwise, only minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm lines. See the previous outlook below for more details, and MCD 1712 for more information regarding the short-term risk across parts of Louisiana. ..Dean.. 08/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022/ ..Central/east Texas Louisiana/southern Mississippi... Widespread/persistent convection across North Texas this morning should result in a slow southward movement of an east-west baroclinic zone into central TX east to northern/central LA this afternoon as a broad/weak surface low near the DFW area moves slowly east. Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass characterized by PW values of 2-2.4 inches will contribute to moderate destabilization within a largely uncapped environment, and a few stronger storms will be capable of damaging downburst winds. Some potential for transient low-level rotation will continue east of the surface low near an effective warm front across east TX into central LA, where subtle low-level veering in forecast wind profiles will exist. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas... Variable cloud cover across the area has led to steady heating/destabilization through 16z, with moderate SBCAPE expected by afternoon within a largely uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a cold front and over the higher terrain, with storms generally moving east through early evening. West/southwest mid-level flow of 20-30 kts will be sufficient for multicell storm structures capable of strong/locally severe gusts. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... While a couple of stronger storms could materialize mainly along the Mogollon Rim late this afternoon through early evening, the overall convective potential across the region should be lower in the wake of Sunday night's MCS. ...Idaho/far western Montana... Upper trough and associated large-scale ascent over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia will contribute to increasing (mostly dry) thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening. A warm and well-mixed boundary layer and modest strengthening of mid-level westerly flow may result in very isolated stronger wind gusts, although the potential for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low. Please refer to the SPC Day 1 Fire Outlook for additional details. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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