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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, August 20, 2022

SPC Aug 20, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across central Illinois and from eastern Indiana into western Ohio. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. No changes were made with this update. ..Wendt.. 08/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022/ ..Midwest/Ohio Valley/Ozarks... A weak surface low over central IA will move slowly southeast through tonight as an associated cold front also moves east, extending from west-central IL into central MO and southern KS by 00z. Despite ongoing precipitation/cloud cover over portions of IL/IN, pockets of more substantial destabilization are expected by afternoon, especially from southern/eastern IN into southwest OH where slightly higher boundary layer moisture exists and stronger heating is expected. With minimal CINH by early/mid afternoon, more concentrated thunderstorm development or re-intensification is expected near the cold front/upper low across eastern IA/central IL, with a second area over eastern IN/western OH. Elsewhere, more isolated strong/severe storms will be possible within the Marginal Risk area near and in advance of the front with severe winds the primary hazard. Southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to effective shear ranging from 30-35 kts this afternoon which will support multicells and a few transient supercell structures. Damaging winds will be the primary severe hazard, with instances of large hail also possible primarily over eastern IA/central IL where cooler mid-level temperatures will exist. Some potential for low-level rotation may exist with supercell structures east of the surface low this afternoon, and have retained the low tornado probabilities in this area. ...South Texas... A low over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to move northwestward toward Deep South Texas. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory for additional forecast details regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. While a modest strengthening of southeasterly low-level winds may occur, present indications are that the low/mid-level wind field will likely remain sufficiently weak to preclude a tornado risk. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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