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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, August 19, 2022

SPC Aug 19, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of the Lower Missouri into the Middle Mississippi Valley through this evening. ...20z Update - Lower MO Valley Vicinity... The Marginal and Slight risk areas have been expanded across portions of southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO/northeast KS to account for ongoing convective trends. Strong to severe storms are ongoing along the cold front and have produced up to golf ball sized hail over parts of IA. A similar environment extends westward along the front toward the MO Valley, and large hail will be the main concern with storms through early evening. For information regarding short term severe potential across parts of Kansas reference MCD 1697, and MCD 1698 across parts of Iowa. ..Leitman.. 08/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022/ ...IA/MO/IL vicinity... To the south and southeast of a vertically stacked low over southwest MN, pockets of greater boundary-layer heating are evident across parts of IA into MO and IL. Amid cool mid-level temperatures around -12 C at 500 mb, moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should become common by late afternoon. A scattering of thunderstorms is expected during this time frame into the evening, focused along the primary surface cold front and confluence bands ahead of it. While stronger deep-layer shear will be found in the southwest quadrant of the broader cyclone, a swath of moderate mid-level westerlies should extend east towards the IA/MO/IL border area yielding effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts. This area should be most favored for a few lower-end supercells and small multicell clusters mainly producing isolated severe hail and damaging wind until convection wanes later this evening. ...KS... In the wake of ongoing elevated convection, a corridor of destabilization is expected near and behind the surface cold front drifting south from southern NE/northwest KS. Buoyancy will remain limited and mid-level lapse rates were relatively modest in upstream 12Z soundings from North Platte and Rapid City. Nevertheless, the presence of 30-40 kt mid-level west-northwesterlies to the southwest of the vertically stacked low in southern MN will support a threat for a few cells producing isolated severe hail and wind during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Eastern GA/coastal Carolinas... Generally stratiform rain with isolated deeper convection has been slowly drifting east over southern NC and far eastern SC. This has convectively reinforced a weak baroclinic zone across the region with a 1017-mb mesolow over eastern SC. This minor cyclone should drift north towards central NC through tonight. A rather localized corridor of enhanced low-level SRH near the track of this low conditionally supports a threat for a brief tornado. Otherwise, locally damaging winds will be possible with scattered multicell clusters that emanate out of GA later this afternoon. ...Central/western AZ... A few strong storms with locally gusty winds may materialize during the late afternoon and early evening across the region within a very moist air mass. Potential for organized severe storms appears limited owing to weak deep-layer shear/mid-level lapse rates. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC