Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Some severe risk remains evident across parts of the northern
Rockies/Plains on Day 4/Friday as an upper troughs builds further
over the northern Plains into central Canada. However, there still
remains a fair amount of uncertainty with how much convection will
develop across the northern Plains Friday afternoon/evening, as
fairly strong convective inhibition is forecast to be present. Will
defer possible inclusion of a 15% severe area to later outlook
updates pending greater confidence in robust thunderstorms
developing. Some severe risk may also persist on Friday across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast ahead of a weak front.
Deep-layer shear should remain fairly weak across these regions, but
modestly organized thunderstorm clusters may be capable of producing
occasional strong to damaging winds. With multiple days of
antecedent convection, too much uncertainty exists to highlight a
corridor of greater severe potential at this time. But, at least low
severe probabilities will likely be needed across portions of these
regions in a future outlook.
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that an upper
trough moving across the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies/Plains this weekend will act to suppress the prominent upper
ridge to some extent. As this upper trough progresses eastward on
Day 5/Saturday into Day 6/Sunday, it may be accompanied by organized
severe thunderstorms across parts of the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. There is still a little too much uncertainty with the
placement and evolution of the upper trough and related surface
features to include 15% severe areas for either day. But, this
potential will need to be closely monitored over the coming days
given a rather favorable forecast environment for severe convection.
Some severe potential will probably continue into early next week as
the upper trough continues eastward across the Upper Midwest, Great
Lakes, and areas farther east. The evolution of the upper trough
becomes much more uncertain at this extended time frame, with
limited predictability in where severe thunderstorms may ultimately
occur.
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