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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, July 5, 2022

SPC Jul 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe risk remains evident across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains on Day 4/Friday as an upper troughs builds further over the northern Plains into central Canada. However, there still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with how much convection will develop across the northern Plains Friday afternoon/evening, as fairly strong convective inhibition is forecast to be present. Will defer possible inclusion of a 15% severe area to later outlook updates pending greater confidence in robust thunderstorms developing. Some severe risk may also persist on Friday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast ahead of a weak front. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly weak across these regions, but modestly organized thunderstorm clusters may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds. With multiple days of antecedent convection, too much uncertainty exists to highlight a corridor of greater severe potential at this time. But, at least low severe probabilities will likely be needed across portions of these regions in a future outlook. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that an upper trough moving across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains this weekend will act to suppress the prominent upper ridge to some extent. As this upper trough progresses eastward on Day 5/Saturday into Day 6/Sunday, it may be accompanied by organized severe thunderstorms across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. There is still a little too much uncertainty with the placement and evolution of the upper trough and related surface features to include 15% severe areas for either day. But, this potential will need to be closely monitored over the coming days given a rather favorable forecast environment for severe convection. Some severe potential will probably continue into early next week as the upper trough continues eastward across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and areas farther east. The evolution of the upper trough becomes much more uncertain at this extended time frame, with limited predictability in where severe thunderstorms may ultimately occur. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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