SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday
across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains, and the central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Northern Rockies/Plains...
An upper ridge should remain prominent over the Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Thursday. Latest guidance suggests that a
low-amplitude shortwave trough should move northeastward across
parts of the northern Rockies and Plains through the period.
Gradually strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow should foster
enough deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. A modestly
moist low-level airmass should be in place across these regions as
well, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. As instability
increases in tandem with diurnal heating, thunderstorms are expected
to develop and strengthen through Thursday evening. Deep-layer shear
appears strong enough for some supercells with threat for large
hail. Bowing clusters with more of a severe/damaging wind threat may
occur as well.
...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
There is a fairly large amount of variability in the placement of
convection and northern extent of substantial low-level moisture at
the start of the period Thursday morning across these areas. Still,
most guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop and
strengthen through the day as they encounter a rather moist and
unstable airmass with eastward extent into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. Winds aloft are not forecast to be strong, but modest
enhancement to the mid-level west-northwesterly flow may occur on
the southern periphery of an upper trough that should be located
over eastern Canada. Have included a Slight Risk where most guidance
shows convection occurring Thursday afternoon/early evening in a
strong instability and weak deep-layer shear environment. Damaging
winds should be the main threat with loosely organized multicell
clusters.
...Central Plains into the Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Less confidence exists in the placement of a front across these
regions Thursday afternoon. Most of these areas will also be under
the influence of the upper ridge, with nebulous large-scale ascent
aloft. Still, weak post-frontal low-level upslope flow will probably
encourage some convective development across the central Rockies
into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday evening. A deeply mixed
boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe wind
gusts with any thunderstorms in this regime. Farther east into the
Midwest and mid MS Valley, convection should largely be tied to the
convectively reinforced boundary. Even though shear should remain
rather weak, a favorable thermodynamic environment may still support
an isolated threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 07/05/2022
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