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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

SPC Jul 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains, and the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... An upper ridge should remain prominent over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Thursday. Latest guidance suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough should move northeastward across parts of the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. Gradually strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow should foster enough deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. A modestly moist low-level airmass should be in place across these regions as well, with steep mid-level lapse rates also present. As instability increases in tandem with diurnal heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop and strengthen through Thursday evening. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for some supercells with threat for large hail. Bowing clusters with more of a severe/damaging wind threat may occur as well. ...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas... There is a fairly large amount of variability in the placement of convection and northern extent of substantial low-level moisture at the start of the period Thursday morning across these areas. Still, most guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop and strengthen through the day as they encounter a rather moist and unstable airmass with eastward extent into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Winds aloft are not forecast to be strong, but modest enhancement to the mid-level west-northwesterly flow may occur on the southern periphery of an upper trough that should be located over eastern Canada. Have included a Slight Risk where most guidance shows convection occurring Thursday afternoon/early evening in a strong instability and weak deep-layer shear environment. Damaging winds should be the main threat with loosely organized multicell clusters. ...Central Plains into the Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley... Less confidence exists in the placement of a front across these regions Thursday afternoon. Most of these areas will also be under the influence of the upper ridge, with nebulous large-scale ascent aloft. Still, weak post-frontal low-level upslope flow will probably encourage some convective development across the central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday evening. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with any thunderstorms in this regime. Farther east into the Midwest and mid MS Valley, convection should largely be tied to the convectively reinforced boundary. Even though shear should remain rather weak, a favorable thermodynamic environment may still support an isolated threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 07/05/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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