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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, July 28, 2022

SPC Jul 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough that will be over eastern Canada and in the northeastern CONUS on day 2 will move eastward and weaken. This will leave behind substantial height rises and slackening of mid/upper flow over the central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region. Upstream, a shortwave trough should move east-southeastward from the Canadian Rockies region to the eastern MT/ND region overnight. Given the nebulous origins of this perturbation -- with possible convective enhancement from day-2 activity north of the international border, its timing/intensity and associated low-level mass response are quite uncertain. Given that, and lack of more-robust low-level moisture, any severe potential with thunder in the related northern Plains warm-advection regime overnight appears too uncertain and conditional for an outlook area at this time. Meanwhile, messy mid/upper-level ridging will persist from the Southeast across the southern Plains and southern Rockies, becoming more defined over the Great Basin and northern CA to the interior Pacific Northwest. Amid associated weak deep-tropospheric flow, a quasistationary low-level baroclinic zone will linger from the Atlantic Tidewater region to the southern High Plains. Again day 3, a few convectively induced/reinforced vorticity maxima aloft may help to focus mesobeta-scale convective potential somewhere in that corridor, in tandem with rich boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating. While isolated damaging downbursts cannot be ruled out, organized severe potential appears minimal at this time frame. ..Edwards.. 07/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC