SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely.
...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough
that will be over eastern Canada and in the northeastern CONUS on
day 2 will move eastward and weaken. This will leave behind
substantial height rises and slackening of mid/upper flow over the
central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region. Upstream, a
shortwave trough should move east-southeastward from the Canadian
Rockies region to the eastern MT/ND region overnight. Given the
nebulous origins of this perturbation -- with possible convective
enhancement from day-2 activity north of the international border,
its timing/intensity and associated low-level mass response are
quite uncertain. Given that, and lack of more-robust low-level
moisture, any severe potential with thunder in the related northern
Plains warm-advection regime overnight appears too uncertain and
conditional for an outlook area at this time.
Meanwhile, messy mid/upper-level ridging will persist from the
Southeast across the southern Plains and southern Rockies, becoming
more defined over the Great Basin and northern CA to the interior
Pacific Northwest. Amid associated weak deep-tropospheric flow, a
quasistationary low-level baroclinic zone will linger from the
Atlantic Tidewater region to the southern High Plains. Again day 3,
a few convectively induced/reinforced vorticity maxima aloft may
help to focus mesobeta-scale convective potential somewhere in that
corridor, in tandem with rich boundary-layer moisture and strong
diurnal heating. While isolated damaging downbursts cannot be ruled
out, organized severe potential appears minimal at this time frame.
..Edwards.. 07/28/2022
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