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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 27, 2022

SPC Jul 27, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe outflow gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central High Plains late this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough over southeast SK will rotate southeastward over the northern Plains/upper MS Valley through tonight, around the western and southern periphery of a deep closed low over western ON. An associated, reinforcing surface cold front will move southward into the central Plains by this evening. South of this front, a corridor of mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints has been maintained in a weak upslope flow regime across the central High Plains. This moisture will combine with daytime heating to the south and west of ongoing convection over the NE Panhandle in association with warm advection/frontogenesis near 700 mb, and will result in MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, the moderate buoyancy and relatively long hodographs (effective bulk shear near 40 kt) will favor a few south/southeastward-moving supercells by late afternoon as convective inhibition is removed. Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur with the more persistent supercells. ...Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Overnight convection has continued to reinforce an effective frontal zone from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic, and residual outflow/differential heating will help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon along the southern fringe of the morning convection. The stronger midlevel flow/vertical shear will tend to remain to the cool side of the front, with weaker wind profiles in the unstable warm sector to the south. Steepening of low-level lapse rates with daytime heating in cloud breaks, in combination with moderate to locally strong buoyancy, will support some threat for isolated wind damage with downbursts in multicell clusters for a few hours this afternoon/evening. Farther north, midlevel flow will be stronger and there will be lingering low-level moisture (65-70 F boundary-layer dewpoints). However, the influence of clouds and morning convection cast substantial doubt on any threat for wind damage this afternoon to the immediate north of the MRGL area across IL/IN. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 07/27/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)