SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over the upper
Ohio Valley and Lake Erie vicinity on Wednesday. Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid-level low/trough over the Upper Great Lakes will move
east into western Quebec and weaken as a mid-level ridge over the
southeast weakens. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will
become centered over the Desert Southwest. In the low levels, a
surface low over northern MI will develop eastward into
Ontario/Quebec during the period as an attendant cold front pushes
southeastward across the Great Lakes.
...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday
morning over northern MI. This activity will likely move eastward
into Canada during the morning. Farther south, a cold front will
gradually push into the southern Great Lakes by midday. A reservoir
of rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 70s) will
become very unstable by early afternoon. Relatively weak
convergence along the front will likely contribute to limiting
overall storm coverage across the OH Valley, but strong heating and
weakening convective inhibition will probably lead to isolated to
scattered storms developing during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show effective shear supporting both multicells and
supercells. The stronger storms will be capable of a hail/wind
threat. Some of this activity may linger well into the evening into
parts of the Appalachians before diminishing late.
..Smith.. 07/18/2022
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