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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, July 18, 2022

SPC Jul 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over the upper Ohio Valley and Lake Erie vicinity on Wednesday. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary severe hazards. ...Synopsis... A vigorous mid-level low/trough over the Upper Great Lakes will move east into western Quebec and weaken as a mid-level ridge over the southeast weakens. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will become centered over the Desert Southwest. In the low levels, a surface low over northern MI will develop eastward into Ontario/Quebec during the period as an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the Great Lakes. ...OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Isolated showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning over northern MI. This activity will likely move eastward into Canada during the morning. Farther south, a cold front will gradually push into the southern Great Lakes by midday. A reservoir of rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 70s) will become very unstable by early afternoon. Relatively weak convergence along the front will likely contribute to limiting overall storm coverage across the OH Valley, but strong heating and weakening convective inhibition will probably lead to isolated to scattered storms developing during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show effective shear supporting both multicells and supercells. The stronger storms will be capable of a hail/wind threat. Some of this activity may linger well into the evening into parts of the Appalachians before diminishing late. ..Smith.. 07/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC